The U.S. is presently undergoing a sea wave of immigration, the biggest in decades, as millions seek safety and better economic opportunities. Since 2020, over nine million people have migrated to the U.S., both legally and illegally. That has caused overall population growth to swell by nearly 1.2% annually - compared with the 0.2% at which it would otherwise be growing due to falling birth rates. In the absence of those new arrivals, the U.S. population would start to decline by 2040.
A majority of the recent arrivals came into the country without prior permission, through the southern border, or as asylum seekers. Of these, many are awaiting court hearings and are the single biggest constituency of this immigration wave. They are predominantly young and of working age, which is a far cry from the aging U.S. population. As a result, recent immigrants are more likely to be in the labor force compared to U.S.-born workers, contributing to labor force growth and filling essential jobs.
Immigration trends since 2020 were predominantly in the low-wage, high-labor market sectors such as construction, housekeeping, and food service. These are essential jobs, but most immigrants do not have higher education and proficiency in English to make their way to higher-skilled labor later. Quite a good number of new immigrants had college degrees, and a few were found working within the skills sector, including software developers.
New immigrants are contributing to the U.S. workforce, but they tend to have higher rates of unemployment due to waiting periods for work authorization and adjustment to the U.S. labor market. Recent immigrant unemployment rates in 2017 were 8.2 percent, well over twice the unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers. Long term, these immigrants' contributions will improve with time as they work and continue their educations, thereby making their overall economic contributions positive.
Most current immigrants are geographically settling in states like Florida, Texas, and California. These new arrivals, largely from Latin America and the Caribbean, are also growing the cultural and linguistic diversity of the United States. Spanish is still the predominant language among new immigrant families, while many struggle over time to develop better English skills.
Admittedly, many challenges still remain, but the consensus of the long-term economic outlook is that the new wave of immigration will lead to a stronger workforce and economy in the United States. As time goes on, the potentially positive impacts of immigration-from low-wage jobs to high-skilled-are increasingly thought to alleviate the workforce shortages in many industries and enhance innovation. Their presence also aids in reducing the federal deficit through taxation, proving the complex yet vital role immigration plays in shaping the future of the U.S. economy.
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